Myth Sunday · Myth vs Maths

Myth: Never Chase Draws

Same draw. Smaller bet. Now chasing earns ₹8.64.

The spot

Turn. Pot ₹100. Villain bets ₹20.

You

J10

Board

A723

Villain

You're out of position. Call or fold? Decide before you scroll.

The price

required equity
= call ÷ (pot + bet + call)
= 20 ÷ (100 + 20 + 20)

14.3%

You must win at least 14.3% of the time to break even.

Your equity

2345689QK

9 ÷ 44 unseen = 20.5%

Price 14.3%

You 20.5%

Villain shows A♠ K♦, so 44 cards can come.

The cost

EV(call)
= equity × final pot − call
= 9/44 × ₹140 − ₹20

+₹8.64

EV(fold) = ₹0

Leak meter

Every fold here leaks ₹8.64.

₹0₹20 = your call

Assumes: No river betting · Villain's cards shown for the maths

The river

A7235

River 5♣. Missed. Right call, wrong river.

Takeaway

Compare your equity to the price. 20.5% > 14.3% = call.

"Never chase"? Check the price first.

Educational content. 18+. Play responsibly.