Leak Monday · Equity Leaks
The Fold That Costs You
You folded 27%. That fold cost you ₹4.55.
The spot
Turn. Pot ₹100. Villain bets ₹50.
AQ
942J
KK
You're in position. Call or fold? Decide before you scroll.
The price
required equity
= call ÷ (pot + bet + call)
= 50 ÷ (100 + 50 + 50)
25%
You must win at least 25% of the time to break even.
Your equity
12 river cards win for you
23567810JKAAA
12 ÷ 44 unseen = 27.3%
Villain shows K♣ K♦, so 44 cards can come.
The cost
EV(call)
= equity × final pot − call
= 12/44 × ₹200 − ₹50
+₹4.55
EV(fold) = ₹0
Every fold here leaks ₹4.55.
Assumes: No river betting · Villain's cards shown for the maths
The river
942J3
River 3♥: flush. The call was right before the river fell.
Compare your equity to the price. 27.3% > 25% = call.
Would you have called? Comment below.
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