Leak Monday · Equity Leaks
The Call That Leaks
You called with 20%. The price was 25%.
The spot
Turn. Pot ₹100. Villain bets ₹50.
J10
A723
AK
You're out of position. Call or fold? Decide before you scroll.
The price
required equity
= call ÷ (pot + bet + call)
= 50 ÷ (100 + 50 + 50)
25%
You must win at least 25% of the time to break even.
Your equity
9 river cards win for you
2345689QK
9 ÷ 44 unseen = 20.5%
Villain shows A♠ K♦, so 44 cards can come.
The cost
EV(call)
= equity × final pot − call
= 9/44 × ₹200 − ₹50
−₹9.09
EV(fold) = ₹0
Every call here leaks ₹9.09.
Assumes: No river betting (implied odds ignored) · Villain's cards shown for the maths
The river
A7239
River 9♥: flush. You won this one. The call still leaks ₹9.09 every time.
Compare your equity to the price. 20.5% < 25% = fold.
Call or fold? Tell us in the comments.
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